20YP's
PAST TRADE UPDATES
Our past trading style focused more on larger movements (larger Time Frame charts) and longer term trades so we did our best to provide thorugh updates on them along the way.
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Our more recent, updated trading style is not only better suited for our earnings program but our trades are rarely open for more than a few hours, let along more than a day. So updates such as these really aren't needed any more.
We archived our old trade updates here for anyone that would like to look them over.
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For overall Program updates please refer to our PROGRAM UPDATES page
MILLENNIUM COMPOUNDER
November 15th, 2022
We've actually come into an almost unprecedented situation right now. One that we can't remember happening, to this extent, any time over the past 3-4 years. The level of convergence that is happening across so many pairs right now is providing us with, and will continue to provide us, with ENORMOUS potential for huge gains on a number of different pairs.
If things play out even half as well as expected we could have the potential to make more in the next couple months than most traders make in a year.
We'll break down and show you exactly what we're talking about.
If you've taken a look at the TRADING INSIGHT pages on our website you'll see that we talk about how all price action is based on the Big Banks & Financial Institutions moving the price moving from target to target to target, and we discuss what some of those targets are.
The Targets that consist of probably 90% of all price movement are Institutional Order Blocks that are in DrawDown, some times for years, that the Banks MUST bring the price back to in order to mitigate (lessen) their losses. You can learn all about these targets here: targets-DRAWDOWN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR GREAT POSITIONING
Usually when the price hits a Large Time Frame target, such as the Daily, but especially the Weekly or Monthly, it will reverse and head towards the next Large Time Frame target in the opposite direction. And this is usually a BIG overall movement (sometimes a complete reversal that may go on for months or even years).
You can see the big reversal move in this chart.
The price moved down, hit a Daily Candle (order block that's been in DrawDown for the Banks) then shot right back up, a LONG WAYS.
Now, just because you know it's hitting one of these targets, that doesn't mean you know exactly where the price will reverse. Sometimes it reverses the moment it barely even touches the wick of the candle. Sometimes it goes deeper and hits the body of the candle. Sometimes it will go all the way to the very edge of the candle then turn around. Last but not least, sometimes it will touch the wick, reverse, then turn around and come back to go deeper into the candle before finally reversing for good.
The great thing about hitting these targets is you know which way the price is going and you have a backstop. You know the price isn't going past a certain point behind you. So it gives you a chance to get set up with some good positions with relatively short Stop Losses which can lead to HUGE gains.
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Let's take the GBPUSD Price Action from the chart above as an example:
The price hit the Daily Candle and almost immediately turned around. So let's say we took a shot on this one and entered a BUY trade with a relatively short Stop Loss (for GBPUSD anyway) of 50 pips.
What happens? Over the course of only a few days the price shoots up 600 pips, up to the next nearest Large Time Frame Targets.
A moderate 2% risk on the trade would have returned a +24% GAIN in only a few days.
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This is ONLY ONE trade
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This does not include the multiple other trades we would have along the way since we KNOW where the price is headed
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This is ONLY ONE pair
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So this enables us to take a few shots at getting set up with a good position and even if you lose 2-3 times, the one trade that does hit will cover your losses and STILL give you 8-9 X your risk on the winning trade.
Now, imagine if we had this opportunity on MANY pairs....all at once!
VERY RARE CONVERGENCE
Imagine if we had this opportunity on MANY pairs....all at once!
Well, that's what has been lining up for us over the past few weeks. And like we said, we may not see a convergence to this extent for another several years.
Slide 1 of 12
You can learn all about these targets here: targets-DRAWDOWN
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You can see here what we mean when we say "usually when the price hits a Large Time Frame target...it will reverse and head towards the next Large Time Frame target in the opposite direction"
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This is 1 year of Price Action. You can see the overall trend is DOWN, but the price keeps working it's way back up to Mitigate the Daily Candles (Order Blocks in DrawDown), then immediately turns around and continues the downward movement.
And this isn't all of them. There's probably a half dozen more pairs setting up just like this. We just wanted to give you an idea of what we're talking about.
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That's why we said we've got an almost unprecedented situation right now. One that may not happen for another several years and the level of convergence that is happening across so many pairs right now is providing us with, and will continue to provide us with, ENORMOUS potential for huge gains on a number of different pairs.
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If things play out even half as well as expected we could have the potential to make more in the next couple months than most traders make in a year.
JUST REMEMBER
IN FOREX, PATIENCE IS
THE SILENT MONEY MAKER
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
Now look, none of this guarantees anything. Hitting targets, reversing to the next targets, etc etc. Just because it may seem like this always happens and this is how it works, doesn't mean that's what will happen next.
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The truth is, when it's all said and done, the price can do anything it wants at any time. It's that simple. There are no "sure things".
And we're fully aware of this so we never go overboard with our risk, risking more on any one trade because we think it's a "sure thing". We play each and every move the same and we never make a move without having a contingency plan. We always have a "Plan B" in case our trade doesn't go as we expect.
MILLENNIUM COMPOUNDER
September 4th, 2022
Slide 1 of 7
We believe everyone should be educated and fully informed about whatever it is they may have their money in. So we do our best to be as thorough as possible with what we're doing, why we did it, what we're thinking, what we're expecting, planning, etc. Whether or not you read it all is up to you. But it's there if you want to.
If you've spent any time reading our TRADING INSIGHT pages you will know that all price action in the Forex market is nothing more than the big banks moving the price from target to target to target. So if we are able to identify which target, or set of targets the price will be headed to next, that's when we can position ourselves nicely and make huge gains.
MILLENNIUM COMPOUNDER
September 1st, 2022
Just a quick update on things for this week as you may have noticed not too much has been happening in terms of Trading Profits. Especially compared to our +21% performance last week.
We focus primarily on USD pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD). This is because USD pairs are the least volatile, most trendy and overall most reliable and "predictable" (if there is such a thing in the Forex Market).
When it comes to overall price movement, you have TRENDING, which is when the price moves in one overall direction, and RANGING (or CONSOLIDATION), which is when the price mostly just moves sideways with no real definitive direction overall.
WHERE WE MAKE OUR MONEY
For the most part USD pairs are TRENDING pairs, and THAT is where we make our money.
You can see that for most of last week there were a lot of big moves up and down. That's how we had such a good week (+21%) and our DrawDown was fairly moderate (<20%).
And you can see that for most of this week the USD has just been ranging (bouncing around with no real overall direction).
This is how it goes with trending pairs. They move in one direction, pause with ranging price action, then begin moving in one direction again.
*We recommend taking a look at our Targets- LIQUIDITY page to learn more about why this is done and how we are able to take advantage of it.
HIGH VOLUME MONEY MAKER
This account is a HIGH VOLUME account which means it pumps out A LOT of trades.
But VOLUME is also a MONEY MAKER for us. Cash Back Rebates and IB Commissions are based on volume. The more we trade, the more we make in Rebates & IB Commissions. Win or lose, it doesn't matter.
So while we may not be making a whole lot in actual trading profits during these periods, we are STILL MAKING MONEY from our trading volume.
That is why you will notice we are still pumping out a lot of trades. As long as we remain at Break-Even, or even a small loss, we are STILL MAKING MONEY from our Rebates (& IB Commissions if you've referred anyone).
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As of right now (Sept 1st, 6:30am PST) we are about -1% with Trading Profits and about +9.5% in REBATES for the week!
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And we still have A LOT of open trades that we'll be closing once we break out of this Consolidation/Ranging period which will catapult our Rebate and IB Commission earnings even higher.
DRAWDOWN
During these ranging periods our DrawDown will increase, which you may have noticed if you are watching your account.
With this account that is normal, expected and factored into things. It happens because we are still pumping out a lot of trades but we're not getting much overall directional movement, which is where we make our big gains.
Once the price breaks out of the consolidation/ranging period, that's when we're able to get the price action we need to begin mitigating (lessening) that DrawDown as well as banking profits.
**Since this is a HIGH VOLUME acct with expected DrawDown, we recommend reviewing our
DrawDown MILLENNIUM & MILLENNIUM IB pages to learn more about this so you are
more comfortable with it as we go.
50% EQUITY PROTECTION
Unlike most EP settings, when we reach our Equity Limit we DO NOT simply close all trades and take the big loss.
As the Equity on this account approaches 50% (50% DrawDown)
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We stop opening new trade sequences
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We may close some of the larger trades
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We begin opening recovery trades to help mitigate the losses
The bottom line is once we reach the 50% mark our priority is to stop our DrawDown from increasing until we begin getting the price action we need to lower it significantly.
NFP ON FRIDAY
The NON FARM PAYROLL report comes the first Friday of each month, and that is this Friday.
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NFP is one of the biggest market movers. We're thinking maybe the banks will use the NFP report to kickstart the USD pairs out of their current Consolidation period and get the price moving again.
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Let's see what happens!
​In the world of E.A.s (Expert Advisors - Automated Trading Software), the truth is there is no such thing as a profitable EA that can be left to run all by itself, indefinitely​, without occasionally running into a situation that will, at the very least, knock out all your profits up to that point.
It just can't be done. It's just not possible to program an EA to have the proper response to every single possible different scenario that may occur in the market over the course of years. That wouldn't even be a realistic expectation.
However, there ARE a handful of EAs out there that, with the occasional manual intervention, CAN do this.
LEGACY is one of them. LEGACY is as close to a perfect EA as you can get. It was developed 5 years ago and has been as reliable as they come. 98% of the time it will handle everything just fine all on its own. But since we run it with SLIGHTLY more aggressive settings than default, every once in a while even it needs a little manual intervention.
What do we mean by a "little" intervention? Well, in the past 4 months LEGACY has been running the show all on its own and doing great.
7 hours and 11 trades in the past 4 months is all the manual intervening LEGACY has required so far. This happened to be last week.
JPY pairs were on a runaway, breakout sprint to some higher targets and with the EA on the SHORTs we began getting into higher DrawDown which was a sign it was going to need some manual intervention soon. Thursday night (24th) is when we jumped in and by morning all was well again and we have been back to making steady profits since.
​GIVING CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE
While 7 hours and 11 trades ​sounds like we barely did anything at all, the reality of what was accomplished in those 7 short hours with only 11 trades and the significance it had on the overall success of the LEGACY account simply cannot be overstated.
PERFORMANCE WITHOUT MANUAL TRADES
COMBINED END RESULT
If you're interested in how this all went down you can follow the slides below and we'll walk you though it all from start to finish.
PERFORMANCE OF MANUAL TRADES ONLY
Slide 1 of 6
All open positions from the EA were SELLs. You can see where most of them were and how the price began shooting up past them bringing all these positions into DrawDown - signaling that we may need to manually intervene soon.
LOOKING GOOD AND GETTING BETTER
We had 3 days this week with trades.
+49.68% total gain in realized profits (profits cashed in).
We also had an increase of +72.43% in our SELL positions Thursday night. This is still being held in open positions so we have NOT cashed any of that in yet.
So right now all of our SELL orders are well into profit and next week, as the price moves back up, we'll begin cashing in a good chunk of those and repositioning others.
-DRAWDOWN-
About 90% of our total DrawDown right now is nothing more than our profits from this week. So right now we're playing with just about ALL House Money.
None of that really matters though because of where we're at with EURUSD and the fact that 100% of our current DrawDown is from our open BUY orders.
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-POSITION IN THE MARKET-
What happens when you drive down a Dead End road? There's only one road out. Only one way out. And anything you passed on the way in, you have no choice but to pass it on the way out.
That's where we're at with EURUSD right now. Where the price is at, there's only one road out. One way out. And it goes STRAIGHT THROUGH all of our BUY positions. That's why we're not concerned about it and left those open orders right where they are.
Every dime of DrawDown that we have at the moment should end in profit.
From a recent update explaining that there's very few reasons to go down, but tons of reasons to go up.
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Same Chart - Different Color... Let's zoom in on that yellow circled area which is where we are now....
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If we're not dropping below the level we're at right now, then there's only one way to go....
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(Zoomed-out view for a grander perspcetive)
That's why I said: "That's why we're not concerned about it and left those open orders right where they are"
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Just a reminder that NOTHING is ever guaranteed, and prices can do anything they want at any time. We can only ever make an educated estimation of what is LIKELY to happen. But rest assured even if things don't go as planned there is always a contingency plan.
A quick recap and to put things into perspective...
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We ended the week hitting those lower targets we were waiting to hit.
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Sunday - Monday: not enough convincing price action to do much.
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A nice 20%+ Gain Tuesday night from the big move up.
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Then we have a nice, textbook move by the banks Wednesday night that helped gain another 20%+ for the night. ...we'll have a break down of the "textbook move" mentioned on our TRADING INSIGHTS page.
Big, one-directional moves like this will always have a deep pullback.
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REASON 1) The Forex Market​ requires a certain level of overall balance.
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REASON 2) Banks ALWAYS have money in the market, lots of money. And they always have positions in both directions, which means they always have orders somewhere that are in DrawDown that they need to bring the price back to in order to, at the very least, lessen that DD in order to close those orders without much loss.
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Big, one-directional moves like this leave a trail of imbalance as well as orders that got left behind and are now in DrawDown. So the price will be pulled back in order to rebalance and mitigate the bulk of that.
BELOW IMAGE: You can see below, there is a block of SELL orders on the 1 Hour Time Frame that was just before a huge move up, which means those orders are in DrawDown as the price moves up. You can also see that this block of SELLs also lines up with the 71 Fibonacci Retracement Level which is the sweet spot for EURUSD.
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So it looks like they used the 4:45am PST EUR news Thurs morning to SLAM the price down close to those SELL orders....
....then on the smaller Time Frame (15min) you can see they're just taking a few hours to slowly walk the price right down to it. They're already inside the WICK of that candlestick so at whatever point they have lessened their losses on those orders enough to move on they'll just turn around and begin heading back up.
BACK UP
Honestly, I see virtually NO reasons for them to head down any further. Of course anything's possible. But if you look you'll see this chart goes back to 2002 and not far below us is the All-Time-Low from this time period. You can also see there are virtually ZERO major targets down there to even bother with.
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HOWEVER, moving up you will see NO SHORTAGE of targets.
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So if we look a little closer....
Like I said above: Big, one-directional moves leave a trail of imbalance as well as orders that got left behind and are now in DrawDown. So the price will be pulled back in order to rebalance and mitigate the bulk of that.
You can see on the EURUSD MONTLY chart (each candlestick represents 1 month of price action) that for almost a full year (2014-2015) the price was in a free fall. Large, unmatched downward movement.
Long Story Short....
There's enough large targets to keep the price moving upwards for YEARS to come. Of course nothing moves in a straight line. But the overall direction will likely be UP for quite a while.
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And while this may sound like a gross oversimplification, knowing the direction the market's going to be moving is half the battle.
And with us being down here at, or very near, the bottom we can set ourselves up to have
positions that continue gaining value for MONTHS at a time.
Just a reminder that NOTHING is ever guaranteed, and prices can do anything they want at any time. We can only ever make an educated estimation of what is LIKELY to happen. But rest assured even if things don't go as planned there is always a contingency plan.
We've got a lot happening and a lot of good things you're not seeing just yet so I'll shed some light on all that. I'll follow up with charts and everything later or tomorrow. I still have not slept for the night. We may be setting up perfectly for a "game changer" type of situation overall so I wasn't about to let anything get by without being ready to start making moves if needed.
I say "MAY" be setting up perfectly. Nothing's ever a sure thing, but everything has been going as I've been expecting it to and it's rare that I'm ever just flat out, completely wrong about these things overall. So we'll see how things start playing out next week.
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PROFITS / GAINS
Let me just right to the main thing that matters and that everyone wants to know about.....MONEY. PROFITS. GAINS.
LAST WEEK - when EU & GU made their big move down and hit their first set of targets below, I explained how the value on our open orders increased drastically. We went from having $2,000 in winning trades per $150,000 account balance.....to about $90,000 in winning trades per $150,000 account balance, overnight.
We used those gains for a couple things, one of which was adding about a 50% gain to our overall account balance over 2 days.
THIS WEEK - After EU & GU hit their targets this morning, we now have about $225,000 in winning trades per $150,000 account balance. Over 2X what we did last week.
DXY / EURUSD hit EXACTLY where I pointed out in the last update.
GBPUSD did make big moves down and hit the next nearest targets that I pointed out. But I believe it's going down further to the next level of targets below. But it will more than likely pull back first. So we could have a couple/few weeks of upward movement then a couple/few weeks back down beyond where we are now.
Or it might head straight down now, THEN up. We'll have to see what the price action looks like next week to see what their plan is.
I didn't make any moves last night. This is the exact spot I've been expecting and hoping we would be in so I want to take the time to be sure we do every step moving forward as perfectly as we can. So....
​--I kept us out on the way down (no new SELL orders) in order to give us enough room between our lowest SELL order and when the price stops and reverses.
You never know exactly where they're going to stop and reverse so while you may be thinking it's going down further, they may have gotten all they needed already and decided to reverse earlier. Then you're stuck with some stranded SELL orders and since sometimes it takes a while to confirm the price has indeed reversed and not just pulling back, by the time you realize it's reversing those trades are far into DrawDown Not something we need to add on right now.
--I also want to be sure we get as much as we possibly can out of every single SELL order on the way up (as we begin banking their profits) so I didn't want to risk having any LOSING SELL orders mixed in that takes away from all that value we just picked up. Not to mention having losing orders that add to our DD....again, not something we need to add on right now.
​--Lastly, that room I left us between our lowest SELL order and where the price may be reversing, that will allow us plenty of time to wait for the proper price action that confirms which direction the price is headed now then we can stay ahead of it and position ourselves perfectly.
In the Forex Market, PATIENCE is a money maker.
THE PLAN
​When the price does begin heading back up, depending on where it's likely to go (still have to analyze things from here), we're going to start banking profits from our SELL orders. This will also put our overall exposure heavier on the BUY side which means our DrawDown, which is 100% from BUY orders now, will decrease the entire way up without us even having to do anything.
We have BUY orders all along the way so as we go up we'll start passing them and their DrawDown will turn into Profits, which only helps compound the effect of us increasing our equity.
Of course an IDEAL situation would be that the price moves all the way up to the level of our highest BUY order. At that point we will have literally turned every dime of DrawDown that we've had over these past few weeks into profit.
Now, we may not get ALL that, and that's fine. But it's certainly a very real possibility.
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TRADES CLOSED BEFORE MARKET CLOSE TODAY​
At the moment our Equity is low (our DD high). I didn't want any problems with the spike in the spreads (temporarily decreasing our equity) during market close; market open and roll over....or anything else for that matter.
So I closed portions of our oldest, highest DD trades just to remove some negative equity and give us a little more cushion.
NOTE: The portions of these trades that were closed were in DrawDown which means when they were closed they turned into real losses. So, you see losses for today. BUT, these losses are only temporary and were used to help our equity for the time being.
I say temporary because the exact number of lots that were closed today from the old trades were opened in brand new trades. So when the price does head up these new trades will be in profit the entire time. And they will increase in value at the exact rate the old trades' DD would have decreased in the same amount of time.
Basically what this means is, and this may sound funny, but we "borrowed" those losses to help us now by removing negative equity. But as we move upward we'll be getting it back from the new trades opened today, except this will be in the form of actual POSITIVE equity, which helps us and not hurts us, and if we get up far enough we may even make all that back PLUS a profit.
I've said it before, nothing you see here is even remotely conventional. I realize that. Not only from the way we pull money from the market, but also the time frames that we work on.
We work on a bigger time frame. A bigger picture. We're not looking to just peel off some scraps from the $6 TRILLION a day that changes hands in the Forex Market. We're going for BIG CHUNKS of that $6 TRILLION. And that requires time, and patience, and planning. BUT the numbers we're talking about are enormous.
Our SELL positions increased in value by about +130% LAST NIGHT. That's nuts! But that's what we're talking about. And that's why I say if you want to make REAL money in the Forex Market.....actual WEALTH.....it's not going to happen with your conventional, "trade like the 96% of Forex Traders that lose" type of trading.
It's going to happen with "trade like the 6% that make literal fortunes every single year" type of trading. That 6% are the banks and large financial institutions.
So just hang in there and let things play out. Your patience will pay off.
Picking up from the FB Group update.... This is just a bit about where we're at in the market, where some of the areas are that the price needs to get to, what I'm seeing, what I'm thinking, etc.
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I'll try to post things like this as often as I can.
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This way anyone that wants to feel a little more "in the loop" and involved can. You can follow along and see how things play out as we go. We're all in this together so it never hurts to know what's going on and what we're doing.
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Our two main pairs are EURUSD & GBPUSD. Now, if you want to even have a chance at figuring out what EU and GU are going to be doing, then you need to first understand what the USD is doing.
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For this we use the DXY (US Dollar Index). In fact, EURUSD and DXY are virtually the exact same, just in opposite directions.
You can see the DXY chart below and see it's been in a steady up trend since June and it hasn't made any overt movements to signal it's changing directions yet.
That big move down last week Weds/Thurs for GU and EU, you can see it here with the USD (except here it goes up: USD goes up = XXXUSD pairs go down).
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Now, there are always small level targets. All the way down to the 1 minute time frame. Every bit of price movement creates new imbalances and new targets left behind that must be rebalanced or mitigated. So it's a never-ending process (I'll get into this more another time).
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But these targets on the higher time frames like the Daily, Weekly and especially Monthly, are HUGE. There might be a small candlestick the represents a block of orders on the 1 Hour Time Frame that's 25 pips big and might account for a million dollars in DrawDown for the banks.
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Whereas a Weekly or Monthly candle might be 500 pips and account for a Billion Dollars of DrawDown for the banks.
You can see here that we have several large Time Frame targets both above and below the current price. But with DXY being in such a clear uptrend it's more likely its to the ones above.
BUT....even if DXY decides to reverse it's trending direction and start heading down overall, it's still likely to hit those upper targets next. Because if that down movement was the beginning of the reversal, those upper targets are still right in the sweet spot of a pullback.
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Meaning even if the price is now going down overall, it will still have pullbacks and those upper targets are right in the sweet spot of a pullback. For DXY and EURUSD that sweet spot is the 71 to 78 Fibonacci Retracement zone.
If the USD is going up then EURUSD is going down. So we look and we see down below we have a group of nice big targets on the Daily, Weekly AND Monthly Time Frame. And you can see that the biggest one (Monthly) happens to line up with that 78 Fib Retracement zone just like the DXY.
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And you can see that's well below the bulk of our SELL orders.
Here's GBPUSD. That lower WEEKLY target, that's where GBPUSD is going. This is a pretty common pattern here. You have that big Time Frame block of orders that's been in DrawDown since Oct, 2020.
Being this size that's probably hundreds of millions of dollars in DrawDown they've been slowing working their way back to so they can close those out without much loss. And you can see the price has been slowly working its way back down to it.
There ARE a few larger targets above still. Not nearly as big as the others but still possible. But for the most part, everything above them has already been rebalanced and/or mitigated which means it's very unlikely the price will go beyond those upper targets, if it even goes up to them at all right now.
Just a reminder that NOTHING is ever guaranteed, and prices can do anything they want at any time. We can only ever make an educated estimation of what is LIKELY to happen. But rest assured even if things don't go as planned there is always a contingency plan.
Both GBPUSD and EURUSD made BIG moves last week. Big moves leave a trail of imbalance and DrawDown. So something I can see happening is both pairs working their way back up, cleaning everything up from the big move down, then heading back down.
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The speed of which any of this happens there is no way to know.
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BUT, if the prices ARE heading down they most likely will not break above those circles areas which were the starting points of their big moves down. In fact, they may not even pull back that far.
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MY MAIN POINT IS that if it starts becoming clear that's what is happening then I'll be able to start adjusting our positions right at the top of our next decent downward. Which means I'll be able to get the most out of it and eliminate a good portion of our DrawDown while also drastically increasing the value of our SELL orders.
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Again....that's the plan anyways.
TOP SECTION - REPEAT OF FACEBOOK POST
Like I said in the last post, I understand there is nothing about how things have been done that seems conventional, or that it is so unconventional and goes against everything you "know" about how to trade the Forex Market that it just seems like madness.
But the truth is this is how the banks trade. And this is the only way you will ever be able to make real money in this market.
And what I mean by "real money" is I mean "wealth". Not making money. Building actual wealth. This is how it happens. If you're looking to go beyond merely surviving and eaking out a meager living with trading, making small to moderate % gains, this is how it happens.
Trading like the predators and not the prey is how you can turn $100k into a $100,000,000+ in relatively no time at all. That is NOT an exaggeration and really this is the only way.
You've all seen a small piece of that so far. 40-50% in a week. 30% overnight. If we've had more than only a few weeks of conducive price movement in the 12 weeks since we started, you would have seen more.
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So this brings me to this past week. There's a lot that you don't see from your perspective so I'll tell you right now WHY you're going to want to read the next few sets of things that I'll be posting on our site....
We had about 50 positions open and on Wednesday afternoon, for every $150k of our PAMM account balance, we had about $2,000 worth of winning trades.
Starting Weds evening both GBPUSD and EURUSD took a swan dive down to the large time frame targets that I've been waiting WEEKS for them to move down to.
By Thursday afternoon, for every $150k of our PAMM account balance we now had about $95,000 worth of winning trades.
Think about those numbers for a minute.
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I realize that you now probably have even more questions than you did before. I will do my best to answer them as thoroughly as I'm able to.
There is A LOT that goes into everything I want to get into and I'm just getting started. So please bear with me while I try to get it all up as quickly as I can.
PAST FEW WEEKS
Our DrawDown comes from both BUY and SELL orders. We have BUY orders up near the next nearest large time frame target going up, and SELLs down near the next nearest large time frame target going down.
As we've discussed, for the past few weeks neither pair (EU or GU) has made any significant moves in either direction in order to take out any large targets. So we've just been hovering above our SELL orders and below our BUY orders.
**IMPORTANT**
POSITION VALUES / WHAT YOU DO NOT SEE
On Tuesday, and for the most part the past few weeks while the prices have just been sort of bouncing around between the nearest upper and nearest lower targets, we had virtually ZERO positive value in any of our open trades. Both BUYs and SELLs were all negative.
To put these numbers into perspective for you....
We had about 50 positions open and on Wednesday afternoon, and for every $150k of our PAMM account balance, we had about $2,000 worth of winning trades.
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Starting Weds evening both GBPUSD and EURUSD took a swan dive down to the large time frame targets that I've been waiting WEEKS for them to get to.
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By Thursday afternoon, for every $150k of our PAMM account balance we now had about $95,000 worth of winning trades.
First, I want you to think about what I just told you and the utter insanity of how much that is relative to our account balance.
For every $150k of our balance, we went from having $2k worth of winning trades to about $95k.....literally OVERNIGHT.
1) Because of where those trades were placed.
And 2) because by always having open positions in both directions like we do we're able to have TONS of potential profitable trades open while we can keep our actual exposure limited to 0 if we wanted to (I'll explain more later).
It's all just a matter of adjusting our exposure as we go. And this is also how you're able to generate MASSIVE profits at times. ...again, I"ll explain more on the next page I have up on here.
**IMPORTANT**
Now, I understand that your account balance nor our overall DrawDown changed much so you don't see that. And you're probably wondering why?
- THERE'S A COUPLE REASONS -
1) That's because our BUYs came down as much too. BUT, those BUYs are also in position to do the exact same thing.
As of Thursday, our top BUY positions (only a handful) account for about 80% of our current DD. So as the price goes up we slowly close our winning SELL trades along the way while the DD from our BUY trades decreases organically and while we also add a few BUYs along the way to balance out our exposure - BUYs which will also begin adding profits and positive equity while we come closer to closing out the big ones causing all this DD.
OR....if the price moves down more then all those SELL positions will only GAIN even more value which means even more profits we close along the way back up to those higher targets.
2) Our DrawDown has been high (equity low). And what happens when you close a winning trade is you are removing positive equity so your DD goes up, which we don't want right now.
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For example, if you are in DD -$10,000, and you close a $2,000 winning trade, you just removed +$2,000 from that -$10,000 DrawDown so now that DD figure actually goes further into the negative. Now, you also added that $2,000 to your balance so your DD doesn't go up by the same exact %. But it does still go up. And again, we don't want that right now.
SOLUTION > Instead of closing the winning trade you simply open an equal opposing position you have now paired those two trades together and locked in their value, while KEEPING that positive value in your Equity, preventing it from dropping by closing it and removing that positive value.
Take the above example: Let's say that $2,000 winning trade was a 2.0 lot BUY. Instead of closing that 2.0 lot BUY and cashing in that +$2,000, adding it to your balance, and adding -$2,000 to your DD....you simply open a 2.0 lot SELL. By doing this they will now balance each other out. If one makes $1, the other loses $1 and vice versa. And the difference between them will always remain +$2,000.
So for as long as those 2 trades remain open together, their paired value will ALWAYS be +$2,000. It doesn't matter what the price does or which way it goes or how far. That +$2,000 is now locked in and waiting for you to cash it out whenever you're ready.
And by keeping it open like that, you keep that positive value in your equity, preventing it from dropping. And since you have the equal opposing trade open, it's value will not change with price movement. You're simply holding it in EQUITY instead of BALANCE and it's there any time you're ready to cash it in.
And that is exactly what we have. We have a lot of winning trades locked in but we're keeping them in EQUITY to keep our EQUITY as high as possible until we can get up closer to our BUY positions (which make up 80% of our DD right now) and we can eliminate that DD. Then we'll begin cashing in everything in large chunks and have some nice pay days.
PROFITS FROM THIS WEEK
I said for every $150k in our balance, we went from having $2k worth of winning trades on Weds to about $95k.....literally OVERNIGHT.
---I DID use some of that. I closed some winners in order to put SOME profits back into your accounts because I know until you all begin to see the actual results of what I'm talking about, these times can seem discouraging.
It came out to about a +10% gain for Thursday night. And like I said, if we didn't have our one BIG trade closed we would have had a decent profit for the week overall. But sometimes these things happen and it's fine. We'll get it all back.
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---I also used some of it to close some losing trades that were worth cutting their losses. Which also helped me reposition many trades that will pay off for us even bigger when those targets are hit.
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​---Even after giving accounts a 10% gain for the night and closing a handful of losing trades (close them at a loss and use an equal amount of profit so it's not an actual loss on the account), we still have about $57,000 per $150,000 account balance that's sitting in our trade values right now.
ALL of which will be realized at some point one way or another. As the price moves we'll act accordingly. If the price goes up we start cashing those winners in and adding that to our balance while the upward price movement helps us eliminate our DD organically.
If the price goes down, since they are all still open they will continue to grow in value.
Let's take a look at something you CAN see here.
Our exposure (open trades):
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57% of our DD right now is from GU BUYs and that's most likely
what we will be taking out next.
Weds night GU SELLs were something like -30% (now +20%).
The EU numbers were almost twice what they are now so they have both come down (part of the repositioning that I did) and are now both within perfectly acceptable ranges. And they're pretty even so whichever way things move (because EU is a little less certain atm) we'll be able to do the same as GU.... bring one of those well into the positive one way, then knock out the other when it goes back the other way.
TARGETS
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When I say things like the price will come back or will hit a certain target, this isn't about hoping it will. Or because I used some indicator or pattern that predicts where the price is going.
I say it will get to that area because it HAS to. It HAS to because of the very nature of the market and because of how the banks trade.
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These are things I will get into when I have our new page up on our site. I will have it up as soon as I possibly can.
THE PAST FEW WEEKS
Our DrawDown comes from both BUY and SELL orders. We have BUY orders up near the next nearest large time frame target going up, and SELLs down near the next nearest large time frame target going down.
As we've discussed, for the past few weeks neither pair (EU or GU) has made any significant moves in either direction in order to take out any large targets. So we've just been hovering above our SELL orders and below our BUY orders.
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DRAWDOWN - CLOSED TRADES THIS WEEK
Now, it was BARELY 3 days ago that we explained that we had to clean up our account from a number of old trades that were in DrawDown. Basically LCM wanted us to close all trades before about a week ago. And I explained to you how I hate to have to do that because I know they're good trades in a good spots.
However, they showed us the professional courtesy of asking us to do it ourselves instead of just doing it like most brokers would.
BUT...I also know the value of what we had/have so I closed what I was willing to and just asked if that was enough.
They did also end up closing one of our larger trades too. One that I tried REALLY HARD not to have to close. But they did and that's fine. We'll get it all back.
But all the losses from this week were from this. Closing old trades that were in DD. But again, it's fine. We'll get it all back.
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I'm not a big fan of closing trades to eliminate DD because it's not even remotely efficient and just kind of a waste. At best it will simply stop your DD from increasing. But so does opening an opposing position. Except at least that way your trade still has a chance to be a winner.
I place trades where I do because they are on the way to larger targets that MUST be hit. So these trades, while they may be in DD, WILL be profitable trades when the price begins making its significant moves again.
And that literally just happened 3 days ago. Every single SELL trade that we closed this week would have been IN PROFIT on Thursday morning. All that DD we've had from those trades - all the losses we took this week - all would have been PROFIT by Thursday morning.
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But again. It's fine. We'll get it back. As we go you will see that this is nothing.
As per the FB Group update posted on Feb 17th
Being in a DownTrend overall, once the price came up to mitigate a small block of BUY orders we were expecting a big move down at any time, whether it was getting back to the DownTrend for good, or....
....Or just a pullback, possibly to mitigate another small block of SELL Orders while on the way up to clear out the last few main targets above us.
It did make the move down and did mitigate those SELL orders
Being prepared, we eliminated about 10% DrawDown from this move alone.
With it now now being the slow part of the day when not much happens I set up a few BUY STOPS.
This way if the price continues dropping we'll continue gaining. But if the price goes back up for some of those last targets our BUY orders will trigger, balance out our exposure and keep our DrawDown from increasing (since we just knocked out 10% in 5 minutes).
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Very basic, text book moves and orders that are done ALL THE TIME.
The price DID go up to mitigate another smaller target. However, it turns out something happened with my VPS (I'm guessing a random automatic restart for updates) and it shut down all my open programs, including my MT4 terminals (without me knowing).
With the terminals closed the pending orders never triggered. So when the price did go back up we were still heavy on our SELL orders and without the BUY orders opening and freezing our DrawDown our DD shot up.
For the record, I use one of the best VPS services that are available. I've been using this exact desktop for about 3 years and I've only ever had 1 issue which was my fault anyways.
And now the price is heading back down.
As frustrating and stressful as this is, the truth is we almost couldn't be in a better position for something like that to happen. So it's still very likely that we'll be just fine.
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As you can see, we have virtually ZERO large targets above us still and LOTS of HUGE targets far below us.
You can see the area where all of our SELL orders are at right now. The next group of LARGE / MAJOR targets is FAR BELOW all of our SELL orders.
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If the price only hits the very next large target below, ALL of our SELL orders that are now in DrawDown will then be in PROFIT.
Just a reminder that NOTHING is ever guaranteed, and prices can do anything they want at any time. We can only ever make an educated estimation of what is LIKELY to happen. But rest assured even if things don't go as planned there is always a contingency plan.
We had several exciting weeks, putting up great numbers and members waking up to double digit overnight gains. Then suddenly things have been relatively uneventful for the month of February so far. So we just wanted to provide you with a visual representation of why that is.
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Like we've said before, our money maker is when the price is trending (moving up or down).
You can see here what the price action looked like during December and January with all of our big gains.
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Then you can see the difference with February's price action. It's in consolidation right now (moving sideways).
You can see just in the past 7-8 months we've had a few consolidation periods. They usually last for something in the 10-14 day range so we can expect to be breaking out of this literally any day now.
Here's a couple EMA's (Exponential Moving Averages) to help show things more clearly. You can see the further away the 10 Day EMA (green) is from the 200 Day EMA (orange) the more trending price action we have (up & down).
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Then as the two begin converging the more consolidating/ranging price action we have (sideways).
Just a quick run down of what's been happening so far this week since we haven't had a whole lot of action.
We're waiting for the price to start heading down again before we start making any significant moves.
Our MONEY MAKER is when these pairs (EURUSD & GBPUSD) are trending - moving in one overall direction at a time.
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Breaking the low made at the end of last week would be a major break of structure and a good signal we were about to start heading down again.
You can see that did happen Sunday night (Monday morning). Once it broke that low we began preparing by closing out some of our BUY orders that were in DrawDown in order to put ourselves heavier on the SELL side. Hence the losses from Sunday.
However, you can see the price did not continue downward. It pulled back up a little and has been, for the most part, consolidating between a major high and a major low.
You can see here the difference between TRENDING (moving in one overall direction) and CONSOLIDATING (back and forth without actually making big moves one way or the other.
Since our MONEY MAKER is a TRENDING pair, we haven't done much and we're just waiting. But in the mean time, Monday night (Tues morn) I went ahead and got our losses back from Sunday (plus a little extra) since we didn't get any use out of those losses at the time like we would have if the price did start heading back down.
PURPOSE OF COLSOLIDATING
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You can look at consolidation like this as sort of a 'refueling break'. See, banks can't just hop on their phone, open their mobile app, click BUY and BUY 10 MILLION LOTs. It just can't happen. There's just not enough liquidity in the market to fill orders that size like that. So they have to CREATE liquidity.
One way is like this. They'll keep the price in a certain range, creating patterns that retail traders look for. Faking up. Faking down. Moving here. Moving there. .....the longer they do this the more retail traders they pull into the market because every move they make, there are hoards of traders that have an idea of what's about to happen so they jump in.
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The banks keep doing this, pulling in traders left and right (in other words, bringing that liquidity into the market). They can see how much money is sitting there in BUY orders and SELL orders. Once there is enough they start making their moves, wiping out traders on both sides, freeing up all the liquidity which they can now scoop up to fuel their next big run, whether it's an upward trend or downward.
MOVING FORWARD - DRAWDOWN
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The past couple weeks have been a gold mine with these pairs trending. Our next top priority as soon as the market begins moving again is to eliminate our DD.
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Over these past few weeks the DD allowed us enough wiggle room to be aggressive and get us a GREAT start to the year at almost +80% so far. So when the prices start making significant moves again in their overall trending direction our #1 priority is to eliminate that DD so we can start fresh and try to do this all over again over the next few weeks while the price is moving.
I'm just going to go over GBPUSD (GU) for now because it's easy to explain. EURUSD (EU) will require explanations on a multitude of other topics in order for it to make sense to you. And we'll soon have a page up that will explain those things.
First, here is GU on a DAILY chart (each candlestick represents 1 day of price movement). You can see that the overall trend is DOWN.
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Now, the pullbacks are HUGE, pulling back anywhere from 70-90% of the way. But overall, it's trending direction is downward.
You can see that the price pulls back to the large blocks of BUY orders that are mostly from the big banks. There is a specific way that the banks and large financial institutions are FORCED to trade which we will get into on a separate page.
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In short, the banks need a large amount of liquidity in the market to fuel their huge orders ($100,000,000+, $1,000,000,000).
So in this case these are large blocks of BUY orders the banks use to spike the price up and entice traders to put their money into BUY orders, thinking the price is going up. This creates a huge influx of liquidity into the market.
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Then they jam the price down, wiping out all those BUY orders which releases all that liquidity into the market, which the banks use to fuel their REAL MOVE, downward.
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However, all those BUY order the banks used as their trap, they are now in DrawDown (in the negative). So they have to walk the price back up to that area to mitigate (lessen) their loss (or break even). And once they got their money back they head back down where they were going in the first place.
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1 HOUR (H1) chart just so you can see some of the inner working and all the zigging and zagging that happens on a smaller level that make up these large directional moves.
This is the price movement of GU this week, up to 4am PST Thursday.
You can see the huge spike that the 4am GBP news gave us. Right up to mitigate order blocks of BUYs on 3 level: Weekly, Daily & H4. Pretty much TO THE PIP!
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EU had a similar spike from the EUR news at 5am. These two moves are where most of our 36% gain came from that night.
You can see that IMMEDIATELY after the price hit its target it made a huge move downward.
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Now, since this is EXACLTY what we were expecting, for the price to hit those targets then head back down, I began preparing us for that move by adjusting our exposure to be a little heavier on the SELL side. I didn't make any BIG moves. Just enough to get us ready.
However, as usual, the market couldn't care less about your plans and expectations. So after the big move down it came back up a bit.
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Since we were in position for the downward trend to resume and heavier on the SELLs, this move back up caused our DrawDown to go up.
The NFP news was at 5:30am PST Friday morning. NFP is the single biggest market mover and it happens on the first Fri of each month.
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I left our DD where it was because I was giving us a chance of having a BIG move downward from the NFP which would have done that for us.
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Now, you may see this and say it DID have a BIG move down. So why didn't we use that to lower our DD?
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The reason is because until the price completes a major break of structure, it has not yet committed to that direction. So until it broke below that "significant low / major break of structure (BoS)", it could very easily come all the way back up. So if we went all in before that happened, we could have gotten our a**es handed to us.
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This is where patience is important. You might see the price moving far and fast and get that FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) kicking in so you make some moves. But the market is a merciless one and won't think twice about making you pay for your impatience.
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Trust me. I have learned those lessons the hard way!
WHAT'S NEXT?
But since this is a downward trend I knew the price was VERY unlikely to have a major break of structure by breaking above the nearest LOWER LOW. There's no reason for it to go beyond that low and beyond that W BC.
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Knowing this I wasn't worried about the DD getting out of control because I knew it wouldn't go beyond that area. There was no point in opening more BUY hedges to stop the DD increase because if the price is going down then those new BUYs would be left stranded up there and now we have to account for THOSE being in DD as the price comes down.
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There also was no point in closing any SELLs out at a loss since the price is headed back their way. It would have just been a waste.
WHAT'S NEXT?
Well, if the price is indeed continuing it's downward trend
then it has a LONG way to go.
This is where we let the price do all the work for us in eliminating our DD.
Since we know it's going down overall we can have more confidence and security in our trades which allows us to be a bit more aggressive.
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That’s where you can do things like stack your trades. For example the price is headed down. So you open a SELL trade and have a Break Even setting at 10 pips. So once it is 10 pips in profit the Stop Loss is moved to Break Even and now that trade is RISK FREE – the worst it can do is break even.
As soon as your first trade hits that BE level and is risk free, you open your second SELL trade. As soon as that one hits the BE level you open your third SELL trade. And you can do this ALLLLL the way down. You’re just stacking winning trades on top of winning trades on top of winning trades.
BUT, ONLY ONE of those trades is actually at any risk of loss (your most recent trade because it hasn’t hit the BE level yet). The rest are risk free.
Then once you are nearing the target you start closing those trades and banking all those profits.
RECENT MISTAKE
Two weeks ago we had a situation just like this (above). The price hit a small pullback and once it confirmed it was continuing its downward trend I set us up for maximum performance.
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Over the course of just that one night our DD went from -55% to -3%.
Now, I was expecting it to hit the next nearest major target before it had another major pullback. So when the price started pulling back I held on too long and by the time it was obvious it was another major pullback it was too late to do much. That's actually what our current DD is from. They are still perfectly good trades that should end in a nice profit. We just have to deal with their DD until this pullback if over, which it should be.
We were looking at eliminating 55% DD AND most likely tacking on a nice 20%-30% profit ON TOP of that, all in one night, which played a part in me holding on too long. But I assure you I will NOT make that mistake again.
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I mean, we still eliminated 18% DD and had a huge overnight gain of almost +17%. So all was certainly not lost. Like I said, I always have a contingency plan and it paid off nicely that night.
Just a reminder that NOTHING is ever guaranteed, and prices can do anything they want at any time. We can only ever make an educated estimation of what is LIKELY to happen. But rest assured even if things don't go as planned there is always a contingency plan.